Updated: Election Polls, the Last Dance

Written by John Meloche. Posted in Canada, Canadian Election 2011, Featured, Politics

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Published on April 27, 2011 with 1 Comment

Updated: April 27th

We are now just days away from the 2011 Federal Election and I have updated our chart to show the most current Nanos Election polls (click to see more). I always enjoy checking out the most recent polls and seeing how opinions change day by day. Below I have posted the results from the 2008 Election, March 15th, April 10th, 19th & 26th.

Party      08 Results   March 15   April 10   April 19   April 26
Consv       37.6%        38.6%      41.2%      39.1%      37.8%
Liberal     26.2%        27.6%      30.4%      28.4%      22.9%
NDP         18.2%        19.9%      15.2%      19.8%      27.8%
Bloc        10.0%        10.1%       7.8%       7.7%       5.8%
Green        6.8%         3.8%       4.6%       3.9%       4.7%

These figures represent the voting intent percentages on a National basis. Percentages do very by region and you can follow this link to get a more in depth view of regional polls.

For the first time Nanos is showing the NDP ahead of the Liberals. The last two weeks have seen a massive surge in NDP support, which is mostly coming from Quebec. In the 2008 election the NDP had 21.7% of the vote and currently polls are showing their support has grown to 36.5%. This has come at the expense of all 4 parties in Quebec and could make for some interesting battles.

The Liberal’s are not doing so hot right now and in most cases the NDP shift is coming at their expense. On a National level the Conservatives have stayed consistent with help from stronger support in Ontario and continued domination of Western Canada. For the first time in a few weeks a Conservative majority is looking like a possibility. Ontario is the key for the Conservatives if they want to win over 150 seats. Currently in Ontario they are sitting at 46.9% of the intended vote which is up from the 39.2% they received in 2008. This is a large increase in Ontario when the Liberals are at 25.7% and the NDP are right behind at 21%. The NDP is pulling the Liberals down in Ontario and this could be the deciding factor of this election.

So perhaps I was wrong in suggesting this Election is a complete waste of time but it is still way too close at this point to cast judgement. Still the next few days should be very interesting. Mr Harper has been keeping the lowest profile but I wonder how Mr Layton handles the final few days with his popularity surge. It will be fascinating to see how Canada responses on Monday.

Will Canada respond and give us 4 years of  Conservative government? Could Jack Layton and the NDP move up and finish second as the official opposition? Will the Liberals and NDP try to create a coalition government if the Conservatives fail to win a Majority? All this and more will be answered on May 2nd when you head out and cast your vote! Vote early, vote once but most importantly have a voice.

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  • mikeross

    Great information! I’ve been looking for something like this for a while now. Thanks!